🚗 Hertz Global (NASDAQ: HTZ): A Giant Rebuild — Can the Rental Titan Regain Its Glory?

​Hertz Global Holdings (NASDAQ: HTZ) defied expectations with an 87.78% stock surge over the past year, as our predictive AI identified it as the #3 top stock pick on despite significant losses and a challenging EV strategy.

On February 13, 2025, Hertz Global Holdings (NASDAQ: HTZ) painted a tough picture for investors. The company reported a staggering $2.9 billion loss for FY2024, alongside a sharp contraction in revenue and significant operational headwinds. Hertz, once synonymous with the rental car industry, found itself grappling with the aftershocks of a failed EV strategy and a sluggish fleet rotation. Shares, weighed down by deep skepticism, languished under $9.

Yet in the background, some saw opportunity. Most notably, our predictive AI model did.

On April 25, 2024, despite the negative headlines, Hertz ranked #3 on our AI’s list of top stock picks for the 1-year horizon. It proved prescient — with $HTZ closing at $8.30 exactly one year later, up +87.78% from the $4.42 open price.

AI Stock Pick: Hertz Global Holdings (NASDAQ: HTZ)

Forecast Period: April 25th, 2024 to April 25th, 2025

Time Horizon: 365 Days (12-Months)

Yield: 87.78%

Ranking: 3

So how did a company with massive reported losses deliver nearly 90% returns in just 12 months?

Let’s break it down.

🧾 Financial Snapshot: FY2024 Results

Hertz’s full-year performance reflected a company undergoing a painful but necessary transformation:

Note: The significant year-over-year declines in GAAP Net Income and EPS are primarily attributed to challenges in Hertz's electric vehicle (EV) strategy, including substantial depreciation expenses and lower-than-expected demand for EV rentals. ​

Key Takeaway: Hertz’s losses widened overall, but management showed some operational improvement in Q4, narrowing the adjusted EBITDA loss and preserving $1.8 billion in liquidity — a critical cash buffer for the company's ongoing reset.

🏢 Business Overview: Who is Hertz Today?

Founded in 1918, Hertz Global Holdings operates the Hertz, Dollar, and Thrifty brands across North America, Europe, the Caribbean, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. Hertz’s primary business remains rental services for leisure and business customers, along with fleet management services for corporate clients.

But the company today is markedly different from its pre-pandemic version. Following bankruptcy and a bold (but costly) EV experiment, Hertz is now focusing on leaner operations, higher-margin vehicles, and strategic efficiency under the leadership of CEO Gil West.

🔎 What Went Wrong — and What’s Being Fixed

The most notable misstep was Hertz’s aggressive entry into electric vehicles. Saddled with tens of thousands of depreciating Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) after massive price cuts from the manufacturer, Hertz took heavy impairment charges and struggled with higher-than-expected EV maintenance costs.

To course-correct, Hertz initiated a plan to sell off 30,000 EVs in 2024, absorbing near-term losses to reposition its fleet.

Key operating improvements are already emerging:

• Depreciation per unit fell by 19% YoY in Q4

• A focus on fleet composition is raising revenue per unit (RPU)

• Fleet utilization targets above 85% for 2025 are in sight

• Daily operating expenses, though elevated, are expected to normalize as asset sales finalize

🤖 Why Our AI Chose $HTZ

Our model doesn’t just look at earnings reports or headlines — it detects deeper, nonlinear patterns across financial data, sentiment signals, and microstructure dynamics.

In April 2024, our AI flagged Hertz for several reasons:

• Undervalued asset base: A $12 billion fleet largely ignored by traditional valuation models

• High turnaround probability mapping: Cash reserves + operating discipline made bankruptcy highly unlikely

• Accumulation patterns: Subtle but consistent institutional buying under the surface

• Cost normalization trajectory: Improvements in depreciation and fleet mix pointed to margin recovery potential

Despite all the noise, our system saw Hertz as a classic high-risk, high-reward setup — and it delivered.

💹 The 12-Month Journey: +87.8% Return

While Hertz didn't post any massive quarterly blowouts, it steadily executed on operational initiatives, improved fleet economics, and stayed cash-rich — setting the stage for a powerful rerating as investor sentiment slowly warmed.

🧠 What This Means for Investors

Hertz’s story is no longer about a simple reopening trade. It’s about navigating a messy but promising operational turnaround in an evolving mobility landscape.

For those willing to look beyond near-term pain, Hertz offered a textbook case study in how AI-driven analysis — focusing on underlying structural improvements rather than headline risk — can unlock asymmetric opportunities.

And this is exactly the kind of edge we bring to our subscribers: forward-looking, machine-augmented picks that cut through the noise and identify tomorrow’s winners today.

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Sources: 1. ​Hertz Global Holdings Investor Relations, "HERTZ REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2024 RESULTS" (2025)